Golden cross trend following
Bets that a 50-over-200 EMA cross marks a trend that continues. Pays in trends, bleeds in chop.
Data through 2026-08-10 · 0.06% fee and 0.02% slippage per side · 4h timeframe
Profitable
3/6
Median
-4.9%
Best
+165.1%
What this strategy does
Long entrywhen all of these are true
- EMA50 crosses above EMA200 (golden cross)
Exit
- 1.6% trailing stop
- 2.exit on the opposite signal: EMA50 crosses below EMA200 (dead cross)
If several conditions hit on the same candle, the one listed first applies.
Results by coin
| Coin | Return | Max drawdown | Win rate | Trades | Profit factor | Sharpe | Run it yourself |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| btc | +165.1% | 16.0% | 51.3% | 39 | 2.95 | 1.02 | Open in the backtester → |
| eth | +7.2% | 26.1% | 39.5% | 43 | 1.07 | 0.13 | Open in the backtester → |
| sol | -17.1% | 34.7% | 37.1% | 35 | 0.77 | -0.19 | Open in the backtester → |
| xrp | -23.2% | 38.2% | 32.7% | 52 | 0.75 | -0.19 | Open in the backtester → |
| doge | +10.8% | 30.4% | 41.2% | 34 | 1.15 | 0.19 | Open in the backtester → |
| ada | -18.2% | 28.5% | 36.6% | 41 | 0.78 | -0.16 | Open in the backtester → |
How to read this honestly
- 6 of 6 coins traded fewer than 100 times, so their numbers carry wide error bars.
- Only 15 of 47 coin-and-period cells were profitable.
- 3 of 6 coins carried volatility without being paid for it.
Return by period
| Coin | 7y | 5y | 3y | 2y | 1y | 6m | 3m | 1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| btc | +130.2% | +99.5% | +48.3% | +11.4% | -7.7% | -2.2% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| eth | -1.7% | -14.0% | -13.7% | -14.9% | -7.5% | -5.2% | +2.0% | +2.0% |
| sol | — | -22.5% | -13.2% | -30.7% | -24.0% | -16.1% | -3.8% | 0.0% |
| xrp | -17.1% | -3.1% | +7.9% | +19.4% | -5.9% | -0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| doge | +10.8% | +6.7% | +15.0% | +21.1% | +8.5% | -3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ada | -24.0% | -13.1% | -4.3% | +2.0% | -4.0% | +2.3% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This table is a record of applying rules to past data, not a recommendation to trade them.