Backtesting Guides
These guides exist because most backtests lie — not through bad math, but through look-ahead bias, overfitting, ignored costs and reckless sizing. Each article tackles one way a promising strategy falls apart, using general principles you can verify yourself on this site's backtester.
New to backtesting? Start with look-ahead bias and overfitting — they explain why results look too good. Then read the indicator guides (RSI, Bollinger, Supertrend) to build entries, and finish with position sizing and max drawdown to decide how much to risk.
Look-Ahead Bias: Why Your Backtest Wins but Your Live Account Loses
The #1 reason backtests lie. Learn the five most common forms of look-ahead bias in crypto strategy testing and how to spot them before they cost you money.
Overfitting: The "Perfect Settings" You Found Will Fail Live
Test enough parameter combinations and something will always look amazing, by pure luck. How to tell a robust strategy from a curve-fit illusion.
Fees, Slippage and Leverage: The Silent Account Killers
A strategy that wins before costs can lose after them. How trading fees compound against you, and how leverage turns drawdowns into liquidations.
How to Backtest an RSI Strategy (Without Fooling Yourself)
RSI is the most-used oscillator in crypto, and the most misused. A practical, honest guide to backtesting RSI entries, exits and filters on real Binance data.
The Supertrend Strategy, Explained and Stress-Tested
Supertrend is a clean trend-following signal loved by crypto traders. How it works, where its edge really comes from, and how to backtest it honestly.
Win Rate vs Risk/Reward: Which One Actually Matters?
A 90%-win-rate strategy can still blow up your account. Why win rate alone is meaningless, how it trades off against reward-to-risk, and what to optimize instead.
The Power of Compounding and the "1% a Day" Lie
Compounding is real and powerful over years, but "just 1% a day" is a fantasy that ignores drawdowns, variance and position size. The honest math, with a calculator.
Backtesting Bollinger Bands: Mean Reversion vs Breakout
Bollinger Bands can be traded two opposite ways: fade the edges or ride the breakout. Which one your market rewards is an empirical question. Here is how to test both honestly.
Position Sizing: The Decision That Outweighs Your Entry
Most traders obsess over entries and ignore how much to bet. Yet position size, leverage and risk-per-trade decide whether an edge compounds or blows up. A practical guide.
MACD Strategies: What Actually Survives a Backtest
Signal crosses, zero-line crosses, and why the most popular MACD rule whipsaws in ranges. How to test each MACD mode honestly on real crypto data.
How Many Trades Make a Backtest Trustworthy?
A 10-trade backtest proves nothing; a 500-trade one might. Sample size, luck, and the simple math of why small samples produce spectacular fake results.
Market Regimes: Why Your Strategy Suddenly Stopped Working
Crypto alternates between trends, ranges and chop. Most strategies only earn in one regime, and give it back in the others. How to see regimes in a backtest.
Understanding Max Drawdown: The Number That Keeps You Alive
Return tells you how much you make; max drawdown tells you whether you survive to make it. How to read MDD, why it sets your leverage, and why the future is always worse.